Modeling the Spread of Spotted Lanternfly in Vineyards and Across Multiple Scales

In 2014 the spotted lanternfly was introduced to Pennsylvania and with its ability to severely compromise lumber, grape and crop production has become a species of great concern. We present principled models for the spread of the species, capturing their hopping behavior across hosts, as observed and documented in the field. A calibrated model prototype is showcased with vineyards in mind, capturing how spotted lanternflys move between hosts in landscapes with different host geometries over the course of a season. We demonstrate the implications of this model on existing vineyards using data for host locations in and around real vineyards. We also connect the small-scale hopping model to large-scale models which forecast the spread over areas the size of the entire Northeastern US or of California.